Almost all new power that will be installed by 2025 in Europe will come from solar and wind power, up respectively 60 and 80%. The expected Entso-E, the European association of network operators. Declining fossil and nuclear. The renewable non-programmable in 8 states will be able to cover up to 100% of the load zone. In Italy up to 90%.
The European network operators see the near future with an increasing penetration of renewable energy, which requires to make electrical systems more interconnected and flexible. While the power from fossil will be falling, in fact, most of the new capacity installed by 2025 will come from non-programmable sources like wind and solar: 2025 non-programmable renewables will be able to cover more than 50% of the hourly power in 22 European countries, while in 8 will get to cover (at certain times) 100% of the required load and in Italy almost 90%.
That is the conclusion in 2015 of the “Scenario Outlook & Adequacy Forecast” of the Association of operators of transport systems Electric European Entso-E (attached below).
An outlook based on a projected demand growth of 0.8% per year over the period, thanks to a gradual electrification of heating and transport sectors and to the assumed economic recovery. An estimate, it should be noted, based on the forecasts of the highest national grid operators, however, are not necessarily the most likely.
Entso-E estimates between 2016 and 2025 an increase in capacity from 413 to 419 GW from renewable European (as the two scenarios considered) up to 518-604 GW, with an intermediate step of 467 to 503 GW in 2020. L ‘increase will be attributable almost exclusively to the wind (+ 80%) and solar (+ 60%), since the hydro will remain practically stationary and biomass and other renewables will be marginal.
The fossils, in contrast, will go down in the decade of 399-400 to 344-365 GW following the closure of coal plants (down from 2.77 to 3.54% per year), lignite (down by 2, 69 to 2.78% per year) and oil (-7.21% per year). The gas, however, will remain stable with an annual increase estimated between -0.16 and +1.13% (in the latter case it would be just 22 new GW).
Declining even nuclear power, from 122-124 to 103-106 GW, because of the planned closures in Germany (8.1 GW), France (6.3 GW), United Kingdom (2.6 GW) and Belgium (-2 GW) that will not be offset by the unit that will take effect in Lithuania (+1.3 GW), Finland (+1.2 GW), Hungary (+1.1 GW), Romania (+0.7 GW) and Slovakia (+0.5 GW). All factors that led Entso-E to cut 9% prediction on atomic power 2025 increase from last year.
Summing much as 94% of new installed capacity in the next 10 years will come from non-dispatchable source plants: 9 137 GW account that will be added with flexible and programmable systems.
2025, it is estimated, in 22 countries, the non-programmable renewable will be able to cover more than 50% of the load time, in 8 States will come to 100%, while in Italy they will stay at about 90%.
In this situation, Entso-It warns that between 2016 and 2025, countries increasingly depend on imports to maintain the adequacy of electricity supply. It will therefore be essential to the role of cross-border trade and the response mechanisms of the pan-European system.
As for Italy, the report (based on the scenarios mentioned by Terna) expected in the next 10 years, growth in electricity demand by 1% per year, “thanks to a moderate recovery.” Others, such as Moody’s provide instead that the decline in consumption will continue, driven also by energy efficiency).
Competition from renewable, uncertainties about the evolution of demand, and the lack of stable signals for investment, according to the forecast of the regulators, will continue the decline of fossil fuels in our country, with closures and no new power station, although “The new mechanism capacity remuneration could reverse this trend.”