Hillary Clinton announced on 27 July 2015 its program for renewable energy. If she is elected president in 2016, you can expect further strong accelerated towards renewables and photovoltaics in particular. Within four years aims to increase by 700% the installed capacity of PV, reaching 140 GW of capacity will be installed in 2020. Practically, announced, “half a billion of PV modules”, with installations on the roofs of 25 million housing . The former first lady would, within 10 years from its (eventual) settlement, food with renewable “fuel consumption of every single house in the US”, ie 33% of total electricity demand.
If Hillary Clinton (almost certainly will be the Democratic candidate) he became president, therefore, we might expect a further leap forward of PV in the United States, the country where the sector is still experiencing considerable turmoil in recent years, with 6.2 GW installed only in 2014.
But good news for solar PV also came from two other superpowers: China and India. China seems about to announce yet another rise in its goal of photovoltaics: although the news is not official, it seems that Beijing wants to double its target for 2020, increasing it from 100 to 200 GW of cumulative power. It would not be just another revival of the Asian giant in the field of PV; in recent years the bar has been raised continuously: 6 years ago it was determined to get to 5 GW total in 2015, instead at the end of 2014 was already more than 28 GW, of which 10.6 installed last year. This spring then got up also the annual target, from 15 to 17.8 GW, and, after a first quarter with over 5 GW of new installations, there are those, like the Deutsche Bank analysts, estimate that China in 2015 it will surpass even the new target, connecting approximately 20 GW of new PV capacity.
Great promise of photovoltaics is also India. This superpower like China densely populated and hungry for energy, has quintupled its target for PV in 2022, from 20 to 100 GW, as part of its policies to reduce dependence on coal and to improve access to ‘ electricity of the population.
India currently has only 4 GW of power from the PV, so we have plenty of room for growth. According to a report by Deutsche Bank (attached below) by 2019 investment in PV in the country will surpass those in coal, with about 35 billion dollars a year, which will come mainly from international players.
The German bank in its report writes that never before has the government support to the PV is strong, but is skeptical that India can achieve the ambitious goal: while doubling its previous estimates, expected for 2020, about 34 GW of cumulative power installed. This market however, it says, could accelerate: the economics of PV in India are already attractive and Deutsche Bank expects a further reduction in costs by 30-40% in the coming years.
In short, the superpowers are focusing on solar. According to Bloomberg, from now to 2040, the PV will account for 35% of all new power in the world, with 3,429 GW to 3,700 billion dollars of investment. The real boom will be for rooftop systems: solar will soon be in socket parity – that is cheaper than electricity retail – almost anywhere and will also be a cheaper alternative to diesel generators where the network does not reach. The PV small 2040, according to BNEF, will cover about 13% of world electricity demand (and 22% of European production).